Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale Timing Throws $50 Million Polymarket Bet Into Dispute

Bitcoin treasury giant Strategy said Monday morning that it sold off a portion of its BTC holdings for the first time since 2022—and the timing of that sale has prompted predictors on Polymarket to dispute the proposed resolution of a market that’s attracted more than $50 million in trading volume.

The market in question—which asked predictors whether Strategy would sell Bitcoin by May 31—is currently under final review after two proposed “No” resolutions were disputed by users. The trading volume tally has continued to rise throughout the day as traders pile in on the high-profile market.

Those disputes come after Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which holds more than $60 billion worth of Bitcoin, announced on Monday that it had in fact sold 32 BTC worth $2.5 million during the period of May 26 to May 31, well before the market’s headline end date. 

While the firm did indeed sell BTC before May 31, the fact that its announcement came after the expected market resolution date led to the dispute. As it stands, the market currently sits at 99.9% in favor of “No,” with “Yes” shareholders voicing their displeasure in the comments.

“The rules of this market are very clearly ‘Did they sell within the timeframe’ and not ‘Is there confirmation they sold within the timeframe,’” pseudonymous Polymarket user and “Yes” shareholder Voidofhype posted. 

Because the proposed resolution has been disputed twice, the market’s final resolution now heads to a vote by UMA tokenholders, or those who hold the native token of the Uma oracle that underpins the decentralized prediction market platform. 

Previous market disputes have been settled in the same way, leading to other controversies—such as in last year’s case of a $237 million market on whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit during a specific timeframe. 

The final review can take place over the course of the next two days, according to the market’s rules page. And while Polymarket cannot step in and make a decision one way or another, given the circumstances, it was able to provide “additional context” that UMA voters are intended to consider via the bulletin board on the market page. 

“No information from MSTR, on-chain data, or consensus of credible reporting confirmed that MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin within the market’s timeframe,” the update says. “Confirmation achieved outside of the market’s timeframe does not qualify.” 

Markets asking whether or not Strategy would sell BTC by June 30 and December 31 both resolved “Yes” without dispute—but at least for now, predictors are waiting to see whether or not the May 31 market resolves in their favor.