Morning Minute: Iran Wants Bitcoin to Let Oil Tankers Through the Strait

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes or less, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors fall 1-3% as ceasefire hope erodes, oil jumps; BTC at $71,100
• Morgan Stanley BTC ETF sees $31M in day 1 volume in $2.5B day for ETFs
• White House releases report stating stablecoin yield won’t impact banking industry
• NY Times reports that Satoshi is Adam Back, though Back denies
• STRC sees biggest volume in weeks, enough to buy 1,960 BTC

? Iran Wants Bitcoin to Let Oil Tankers Through the Strait

Per the Financial Times, Iran is charging oil tankers $1 per barrel to transit the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week window, with payments demanded in crypto (Bitcoin specifically).

Tankers must email Iranian authorities with their cargo details before attempting passage. Tehran will then calculate the fee and instruct ships on how to settle, with Bitcoin specifically cited as an accepted payment method. A fully loaded supertanker could face a bill approaching $2M.

This is a tricky one to interpret. On one hand, it’s incredibly bullish that a nation state would be willing to accept Bitcoin as payment for oil transit. In fact it could be deemed a blow to the US petrodollar. But on the other hand—it’s Iran. And it’s a tollbooth. So not the best use case, and one from the most sanctioned group on Earth.

At a minimum it’s an interesting precedent, if it ever gets off the ground.

Key Details:

• Iran is demanding cryptocurrency payments from oil tankers seeking Hormuz passage during the two-week ceasefire
• How it works: The toll is set at $1 per barrel with Bitcoin cited as an accepted payment method; a fully loaded supertanker could face fees approaching $2 million
• The Bitcoin angle: Iran accepting BTC directly for one of the most strategically critical shipping routes in the world is the kind of real-world use case the Bitcoin-as-neutral-settlement-layer thesis has waited years for; it also underscores why sanctioned nations prefer it over USDT or USDC (both have freeze backdoors)

? Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Helps Drive Huge Day for BTC ETFs

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF posted $33.9M in volume on its first day of trading, a respectable debut for a fund that launched into a ceasefire rally with zero runway. MSBT went live on NYSE Arca on Tuesday with a 0.14% fee, still the lowest of any spot Bitcoin ETF on the market.

That helped propel total spot Bitcoin ETF volume to $2.4 billion on Wednesday. BlackRock’s IBIT did $1.93B on its own and Fidelity’s FBTC added $212M. But even with that volume influx, the day ended with $125M in net outflows (so net sellers on the day).

Key Details:

• Morgan Stanley’s MSBT began trading on NYSE Arca with $33.9M in first-day volume; the fund carries a 0.14% fee, the lowest in the Bitcoin ETF market, waived on the first $5B invested for six months
• Total spot Bitcoin ETF volume hit $2.4B today: BlackRock IBIT $1.93B; Fidelity FBTC $212M; Grayscale $121M; Bitwise $66M; ARK $60M; Morgan Stanley $33.9M; VanEck $19.7M; Invesco $7.2M
• Total ETF outflows amounted to $125M

⚖️ The White House Just Sided With Crypto on Stablecoin Yield

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a 21-page report on Wednesday finding that banning stablecoin yield would increase bank lending by just $2.1B – a rounding error at 0.02% of total US lending. The net welfare cost of the ban: $800 million.

This is the banking lobby’s central argument, subjected to a formal economic model by the president’s own economists, and it didn’t survive. The report goes further: reaching even $531B in additional lending from a yield ban requires stacking 3 implausible assumptions simultaneously:

• the stablecoin market growing to six times its current size,
• all reserves shifting to non-lendable cash, and
• the Fed abandoning its current framework.

The White House called that scenario “implausible.”

The timing matters enormously. The Clarity Act has been stalled in the Senate largely over this exact fight – banks wanting stablecoin yield banned, Coinbase and the crypto industry refusing to accept that. The White House just published a study saying the banks’ argument doesn’t hold up mathematically.

That’s a significant step toward getting the bill across the finish line.

Key Details:

• The White House Council of Economic Advisers published a report Wednesday finding that banning stablecoin yield would increase bank lending by just $2.1B (0.02% of total loans) with a net welfare cost of $800M annually
• Community banks specifically: the banks most often cited as at-risk from stablecoin deposit flight would see only $500M in additional lending from a yield ban; 76% of any gains would go to large banks
• The worst-case scenario: even stacking every extreme assumption, additional lending tops out at $531B – and requires the stablecoin market to grow to 6x its current size while the Fed abandons its existing framework; the White House called the conditions “implausible”

? The NYT Says Adam Back Is Satoshi. He Says No.

The New York Times published an 18-month investigation today naming Adam Back as the most likely candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto.

The reporter is John Carreyrou, who broke the Theranos scandal (so he has some weight behind him).

His case rests on three pillars:

• stylometric analysis of thousands of mailing list posts finding Back as the closest writing match to Satoshi;
• the observation that Back largely went silent on cryptography forums during the exact period Satoshi was active, then reappeared six weeks after Satoshi vanished in 2011; and
• what the Times describes as suspicious body language in a filmed interview when the subject came up.

Back denied it before the article ran, denied it inside the article, and denied it again on X the moment it published. “I’m not satoshi,” he wrote, calling the evidence “a combination of coincidence and similar phrases from people with similar experience and interests.”

There is exactly one way to prove Satoshi’s identity: sign a message with the private keys linked to the genesis wallet. That hasn’t happened. And probably never will…

Key Details:

• The New York Times named Adam Back as the most likely Satoshi Nakamoto candidate, based on an 18-month investigation by reporter John Carreyrou
• The thesis: Carreyrou’s case rests on stylometric analysis finding 67 shared hyphenation errors between Back’s writing and Satoshi’s, gaps in his forum activity matching Satoshi’s active period, and overlapping technical ideas
• Back’s denial: posted on X immediately after publication: “i’m not satoshi”; attributed perceived connections to his prolific early writing on ecash and cryptography creating a “confirmation bias” effect; said he doesn’t know who Satoshi is and thinks the mystery is good for Bitcoin

? “Bitcoin AfterDark” Is Here

The Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries “AfterDark ETF” debuted on the NYSE on Wednesday. It’s a fund that holds US Treasuries during regular trading hours and switches to Bitcoin exposure around 4:30 PM ET, riding the overnight session before exiting each morning.

The thesis behind the fund is simple: research has shown the majority of Bitcoin’s historical gains occur outside US trading hours, driven by Asian and European sessions.

Trump’s Truth Social posts, Iran headlines, and geopolitical developments in particular tend to land when US markets are closed.

And the timing could not have been more on-the-nose. Hours after launch, Trump posted his ceasefire announcement at 6:32 PM ET. Bitcoin surged from sub-$68,000 to $72,700 in an after-hours move that a standard ETF investor would have missed entirely.

The AfterDark ETF was built for exactly this.

Key Details:

• • The Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF began trading on the NYSE Wednesday, holding Treasuries during the day and switching to Bitcoin futures, options, and other ETFs around 4:30 PM ET each session; offered by issuer XFunds in partnership with Tidal Investments
  • The timing: launched hours before the Iran ceasefire announcement sent Bitcoin from sub-$68,000 to $72,700 in an overnight move standard ETF holders couldn’t access
  • The thesis: research shows most Bitcoin gains occur outside US trading hours; geopolitically-driven moves in particular land after the bell; the fund is designed to capture that pattern

? Macro Crypto and Markets

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were red giving back most recent gains; DOGE -3%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -5%, TRUMP -2%, PENGU -5%, SPX -4%, FARTCOIN -13%
• AOW (50x), spike (+92%), LOL (+22%) and Griffain (+24%) led notable onchain movers

? Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

? What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly flat again; Punks -2% at 28.25 ETH, Pudgy even at 4.25 ETH, BAYC even at 6.39 ETH; Hypurr’s -3% at 390 HYPE
• Templars (+21%) and INX (+8%) led notable movers
• Yuga Labs settled its copyright lawsuit against Ryder Ripps and Jeremy Cahen over the copycat RR/BAYC NFT collection, ending a multi-year trademark infringement dispute