In brief
- Cohorts holding 10,000-100,000 ETH have grown their balance by 52% since April.
- Analysts see a high probability of a local bottom near $3,200, contingent on stable macro conditions.
- The Fusaka upgrade could boost L2 scalability but may also reduce network fee revenue.
A distinct shift in Ethereum’s spot order activity suggests large investors are accumulating the asset at discounted prices, reflecting behavioral changes that have historically signaled potential trend reversals.
So-called whales, holding 10,000-100,000 ETH, have increased their balances by 7.6 million tokens since late April, a 52% increase. At the same time, retail wallets holding 100 to 1,000 ETH have sold off, reducing their holdings by 16%, according to CryptoQuant data.
The metric measuring higher-than-average spot volumes for executed trades was observed multiple times after Ethereum dropped to $3,000 in early November.
The pattern often marks “the start of trend reversals or late-stage compression phases before major upswings,” according to CryptoQuant verified analyst ShayanMarkets.
A second wind?
“The likelihood of whale accumulation forming a local bottom remains high,” Shawn Young, chief analyst of MEXC Research, told Decrypt. “This cycle looks similar to previous bottoms, marked by large wallets absorbing sell-side liquidity from short-term holders.”
Young pointed to the stability of the ETH/BTC ratio at multi-month lows as a sign of relative strength. That’s further supported by a 25% uplift in daily transactions from September levels and by the normalization of the staked Ethereum discount following the $19 billion market wipeout on October 10.
The marker is not confined to Ethereum and reflects the recent shift in broader market dynamics, driven by an improving macroeconomic outlook, including the possibility of an end to one of the U.S.’s longest-running government shutdowns.
“Whale accumulation makes sense, and we see the same for Bitcoin as well, with new participants coming in to absorb sell pressure from OGs that believe in a four-year cycle,” Lai Yuen, investment analyst at Fisher8 Capital, told Decrypt. “If macro conditions continue to hold up well…chances of this becoming a local bottom are high for Ethereum at $3,200 and Bitcoin at $98,000.”
“There is still a lot of excitement from traditional finance regarding asset tokenization,” Yuen added, highlighting that a supportive regulatory backdrop could provide a further catalyst.
A formal crypto market structure bill could also help lift Ethereum prices, as greater clarity permeates the market, ending a regulatory overhang that could be sidelining investors, Yuen added.
But the government shutdown would need to end soon if bipartisan talks are to resume this year, Decrypt previously reported.
Fusaka upgrade
The institutional re-entry narrative is also being fueled by the Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for mainnet activation on December 3.
The highly anticipated update is poised to boost the network’s scalability and reduce transaction costs by adding dedicated data lanes for rollups, allowing Layer 2 protocols to scale and freeing up the main chain.
“This is a significant update because what’s next for Ethereum adoption is coming from real-world applications and DeFi protocols, all of which would depend on cheaper, faster transactions,” MEXC’s Young explained.
Additionally, the upgrade will introduce Peer Data Availability Sampling, enabling nodes to share smaller data pieces rather than whole blocks, reducing bandwidth and hardware requirements.
Reduced node requirements could allow more people to participate in network validation, thereby theoretically increasing decentralization and security.
Despite some solid home runs, Yuen highlighted a potential trade-off.
With the introduction of blob lanes and improved blob fees, it will be cheaper for Layer 2 protocols to build on Ethereum, the analyst noted, suggesting that it could “lead to a decline in fees, thus reducing Ethereum burn.”
Still, if the current accumulation behaviors persist and the $3,000 to $3,400 region holds as support, analysts expect Ethereum to enter a consolidation phase that could pave the way for further upside.
Ethereum is down 1.6% over 24 hours and is currently trading at $3,560, according to CoinGecko data.
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