Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO: The Bull and Bear Case for Bitcoin

The initial public offering for Elon Musk’s SpaceX on Friday has collided with crypto markets in an unexpected way. The $75 billion raise for the largest IPO in U.S. history will mark a milestone for traditional equities while serving as a direct stress test for crypto liquidity.

That intersection is most visible on Hyperliquid, where pre-IPO perpetual contracts on SpaceX (SPCX) have amassed over $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume, making it the eighth-largest asset by volume on the platform—ahead of most crypto and tradfi-listed perps and on par with Solana, despite offering only 5x leverage compared to Solana’s 20x.

SpaceX is raising $75 billion by offering 555 million shares at $135 apiece, according to an SEC filing, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. That makes the rocket and spacecraft manufacturer the seventh most valuable company in the U.S., ahead of Musk’s EV firm Tesla. But how the biggest IPO ever will impact crypto is where experts diverge.

The bear case: A liquidity drain

The capital rotation story has been building for weeks, according to Adam Morgan McCarthy, lead researcher at digital asset liquidity firm LO:TECH.

“Retail and institutional money has been moving out of risk assets to secure SpaceX allocation, and that pressure does not disappear the moment trading opens,” McCarthy told Decrypt. “The open is when you find out whether the overhang was already priced in or whether there is another leg down.”

McCarthy noted that crypto and AI are now competing for the same retail capital, and SpaceX is drawing from exactly that pool—particularly since the xAI merger. While crypto ETF outflows have accelerated in recent weeks, he argued that ETFs are unlikely to be the primary transmission channel, since most holders will receive SpaceX exposure through their broad-market index allocations within days of the stock’s expected addition to the Nasdaq 100.

The more direct pressure, he said, is simpler: SpaceX is pulling liquidity and attention away from crypto at a time when volumes were already waning.

“This IPO is unlikely to be the catalyst that turns Bitcoin around,” McCarthy said. “If anything, it is more likely to continue sucking the air out of the room.”

Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, agreed that the base case appears to be a short-term liquidity drain. The IPO has generated extraordinary demand—reportedly 5x oversubscribed—and has likely absorbed capital that might otherwise have gone into crypto or other speculative markets, he said.

The bull case: A wealth effect rotation

The bullish scenario hinges on what happens after the opening bell. The deal has been structured to attract retail more aggressively than most large IPOs, with participation reportedly opened from as little as $2,000 and up to 30% of shares allocated to retail buyers, Otychenko noted.

“If the stock delivers strong post-listing gains—and SPCX currently suggests so—some of those initial gains could eventually rotate into crypto,” Otychenko told Decrypt, “particularly among retail traders who already view crypto and tech growth stocks as part of the same risk-on universe.”

For that rotation to materialize, the CEX.IO analyst said he would need to see a meaningful first-day pop, ideally above 25-30%, creating a visible wealth effect, combined with the stock maintaining its valuation after the initial hype fades.

“The most important signal won’t be the first trading day itself but what happens several weeks later,” he said. If investors continue treating SpaceX as a successful trade while Bitcoin ETF outflows stabilize, the probability of profits gradually rotating into high-beta assets, including crypto, increases.

Looking ahead

Neither analyst expects SpaceX to single-handedly determine crypto’s direction. Bitcoin still responds far more strongly to macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical developments, Otychenko noted, adding that AI hype has already been pulling attention and capital away from crypto—and SpaceX may simply extend that momentum.

McCarthy put it more directly: the real pressure is not about one IPO but about a broader structural shift, as traders and exchanges pivot toward offering 24/7 exposure to equities and real-world assets.

For now, all eyes are on Friday’s opening bell, which will determine whether SpaceX becomes a competitor for crypto capital or an eventual catalyst. Until then, the spot Bitcoin ETF exodus extends, with price relying heavily on geopolitical and macroeconomic outlook, experts previously told Decrypt.

Bitcoin is up nearly 1% over the past 24 hours, stuck in a tight range between $61,000 and $64,000, according to CoinGecko data.

On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users remain bearish on Bitcoin’s prospects, putting a 71% chance on its next move taking it to $55,000.