Galaxy Digital said the Senate has four working days to save the CLARITY Act, as it cut passage odds to 30%.
In a July 24 note to clients, the crypto investment firm lowered its estimate for CLARITY Act chances this year from 50%, saying lawmakers need a deal by July 30 to leave enough time for floor proceedings before the August recess.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital’s head of research, said:
“[CLARITY Act] is a strong bill that improves regulation, protects investors, promotes innovation, grows USA the time for incremental negotiations is over. we need a last-ditch effort.”
The warning came just two days after US Senate Republicans released an updated 616-page combined version of the crypto market-structure bill following months of negotiations.
The new text merges measures approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees while adding government ethics restrictions, law-enforcement provisions and changes to the GENIUS Act.
CLARITY Act updated draft fails to unlock Democratic votes
The combined bill includes several concessions aimed at resolving disputes that had stalled negotiations for months.
Its most politically sensitive addition is a new ethics package barring senior federal officials, including the president, vice president, members of Congress and federal judges, from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies while in office.
The legislation also expands provisions targeting fraud and illicit finance, strengthens CFTC registration and custody requirements and makes changes to stablecoin oversight under the GENIUS Act.
Those revisions, however, have not secured the Democratic votes Republicans need to advance the legislation.
Seven Democrats involved in the negotiations, including Sens. Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper and Raphael Warnock, said that the latest proposal still “falls short.”
The senators called for stronger protections covering government ethics, consumer safeguards, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity, while saying they would continue negotiating with Republicans.
That response complicates the vote count at a critical stage.
Republicans control 53 Senate seats, but the CLARITY Act would need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and advance toward final passage. Galaxy expects Republican Sens. Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to oppose the measure, while Sen. Mitch McConnell has not voted since his June hospitalization.
Galaxy therefore estimates that CLARITY Act supporters may begin with roughly 50 dependable Republican votes, though it stressed that the figure is based on public statements and reporting rather than a confirmed whip count.
That leaves the negotiating Democrats central to any path toward 60.
The shrinking Senate calendar makes replacing those votes or extracting further concessions increasingly difficult.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said this week that he did not expect lawmakers to finish all pending legislation before the summer break. However, he left open the possibility of starting CLARITY.
“I would like to at least get Clarity started,” Thune said. “We’ll see where the votes are.”
Galaxy said leadership effectively needs an agreement by July 30 because beginning the floor process would still require time to file cloture, hold procedural votes, debate amendments and move the legislation toward final passage before senators leave Washington.
Waiting until September would place CLARITY into a more crowded legislative calendar dominated by government funding negotiations and election-year politics.
Supporters step up pressure as the clock runs down
The deteriorating vote outlook has triggered a fresh lobbying push aimed at getting the CLARITY Act onto the Senate floor.
The Digital Chamber, Crypto Council for Innovation and Blockchain Association sent a joint letter Friday urging Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to prioritize floor consideration even as bipartisan negotiations continue.
The three groups said the updated legislation strengthens tools for combating illicit finance and creates broader federal consumer safeguards for digital-asset markets.
“These improvements reflect engagement with policymakers across both parties,” the groups wrote, arguing that the legislation could support innovation while strengthening national security.
They also urged leadership to move ahead without waiting for every remaining disagreement to be resolved.
Meanwhile, support for the bill has also expanded beyond the crypto industry.
The National Fraternal Order of Police, which represents more than 382,000 law-enforcement officers, endorsed the revised legislation after previously raising concerns about how developer protections could affect criminal investigations.
FOP President Patrick Yoes said revisions had satisfactorily addressed the group’s concerns and preserved authorities needed to investigate financial crimes involving digital assets.
The group highlighted provisions covering state and local enforcement, anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance, fraud involving crypto kiosks and the seizure of illicit assets.
The endorsement gives CLARITY supporters a response to one of the criticisms surrounding earlier drafts: that protections for non-custodial software developers could inadvertently constrain law enforcement.
Another campaign is coming from the National Black Church Initiative, which says it represents 150,000 African American and Latino faith communities with 27.7 million members.
NBCI urged Thune and Schumer to pass the legislation before the August recess, arguing that clearer oversight could protect consumers from digital-asset fraud while opening access to financial services, entrepreneurship and investment.
NBCI President Rev. Anthony Evans said:
“The Black Church cannot afford to be late to the future of finance, and we cannot allow our people to enter that future unprotected.”
The push is increasingly turning toward the Senate floor itself.
Jake Chervinsky, the chief executive officer at the Hyperliquid Policy Center, said the compromises already embedded in the legislation leave little reason for further delay.
“There are no serious objections left on the substance of the Clarity Act,” Chervinsky said, calling for every senator who presents themselves as supportive of crypto to be forced to take a position in a floor vote.
That pressure leaves Senate leaders with a shrinking choice between continuing negotiations off the floor or beginning proceedings while the remaining disputes are still unresolved.