Talks of a potential altcoin season this cycle have since subsided compared to previous years, despite the recent decline in the Bitcoin (BTC) price and dominance. Notably, a crypto analyst has shared a new long-term chart showing the total altcoin market capitalization relative to Bitcoin at a level that has historically preceded major alt seasons. Based on his analysis, the alt market has fully reset and could be gearing up for a fresh altcoin season if historical trends play out as expected.
Historic Alt Season Setup Forms As Bitcoin Ratio Hits Base Zone
In a recent analysis on X, market expert @CyrilXBT shared a monthly chart tracking the ratio of the total crypto market, excluding the top 10 assets, to Bitcoin. According to the analysis, the chart currently sits at approximately 0.129, a level the analyst describes as the same base or accumulation zone that has launched every major altcoin season in crypto history.
@CyrilXBT noted that this zone is where all alt seasons are born, with each past altcoin rally beginning when the ratio stopped falling and stabilized around the $0.12 to $0.13 range. Looking at the chart, the analyst noted that during the 2015-2016 cycle, the ratio starts near zero and remains flat, with minimal volatility. Following this, a dramatic spike occurred during the 2017-2018 bull run, pushing the altcoin vs Bitcoin ratio above 0.3, marking one of the first major alt seasons.
By 2020, the ratio crashed back below the 0.129 level, erasing most of its previous gains as it consolidated near the low-ranged accumulation/base zone. Notably, 2021 marked the largest altcoin season spike in history, with the ratio exploding upward to over 0.55 amid the bull market frenzy. During this time, volume hit new highs, with bars towering above those of previous years.
New Alt Season Conditions Take Shape
Similar to the 2020 crash, the 2022-2024 cycle saw a post-peak correction, with the ratio trending downward as Bitcoin regained dominance. In the current 2025-2026 cycle, the altcoin vs Bitcoin ratio has finally returned to the historically significant 0.129 accumulation zone, with BTC.D falling to a yearly low of 57.9%.
@CyrilXBT has suggested that the current positioning mirrors the pre-altseason setup that led to a major altcoin explosion in previous years. He noted that the rising trendline connecting successive altcoin season peaks on the chart points to a ratio of roughly 0.80 to 0.90 as the next potential target for this cycle.
As the ratio stabilizes and historical trends repeat, @CyrilXBT argues that recent market performance does not indicate that altcoins are dead. Rather, it shows that the market has fully reset and could be quietly creating the conditions for its next alt season.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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