In brief
- Bitcoin moved closer to its realized price, or the average cost basis, for market participants last week as it fell below $60,000.
- The marker has typically been a key structural point for market bottoms, CryptoQuant said.
- However, demand is fading and not ready to support price growth, highlighted by significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
As Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week for the first time since 2024, it may have moved closer to finding a bear market bottom—but there is not enough demand to sustain price growth, according to a new report from analytics firm CryptoQuant.
According to the firm, one of the most important markers for Bitcoin is its realized price, or the average cost basis for all market participants. As it stands, CryptoQuant puts that marker around $53,600, about 13% below BTC’s current trading price around $61,680.
“Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below the realized price in each major bear cycle,” analysts wrote. “In November 2022, the FTX-driven bottom briefly pierced the realized price before a structural rebound.”
Yet, while Bitcoin has bounced since it fell through the $60,000 level, the firm doesn’t believe there is enough demand to generate a sharp price recovery anytime soon.
“A confirmed bear-market bottom or bullish reversal may still take time to develop,” the report notes, “as on-chain and derivatives data continues to show accelerating contraction in both speculative and apparent spot demand.”
Data gathered by the firm that combines long liquidations and spot Bitcoin demand contractions recently pointed to “the most severe single-week demand destruction since January 2022.”
“There are structurally fewer Bitcoin buyers today than a year ago—removing the demand foundation required to sustain any price recovery,” it wrote.
The firm pointed to the significant ETF outflows, which it deems a “categorical reversal,” as a highlight of the demand withdrawal. The outflows and capital rotation away from BTC were echoed by Bitcoin bull and Strategy co-founder and Chairman Michael Saylor, who last week called the movement “capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment.”
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have only had one day of inflows since May 14, resulting in more than $4.8 billion in total outflows during that span, per data from Farside Investors.
Nevertheless, holders have still not reached capitulation levels according to CryptoQuant, which noted that realized losses will need to accelerate in order to “clear the supply overhang necessary to support a durable price recovery.”
Bitcoin has fallen 6.6% in the last week and is now 51% off its all-time high mark of $126,080.
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