May 19, 2026 – Nuremberg, Germany
Based on Coinbird DCA Calculator data monthly Bitcoin buying since 2015 returned +4,515%, while investors would still have endured a 76.7% drawdown, and DCA underperformed lump-sum investing in Coinbird’s tested shorter-term scenarios.
New analysis from independent crypto comparison platform Coinbird shows what disciplined monthly Bitcoin buying since 2015 would have actually produced, while also showing where the popular narrative of ‘just DCA into Bitcoin’ oversimplifies the reality.
The findings are based on Coinbird’s Bitcoin DCA Calculator, which uses historical Bitcoin price data from CoinGecko and lets users model recurring investment scenarios going back to 2013.
To run the backtest or explore alternative scenarios, users can visit here.
Key findings
- An investor who began a $100 per month Bitcoin DCA plan in January 2015 would have made 137 monthly purchases through May 2026, investing a total of $13,700. As of May 19, 2026, the resulting portfolio of 8.219 BTC would be worth approximately $632,315, representing a total return of +4,515% on invested capital. The strategy accumulated Bitcoin at an average acquisition cost of roughly $1,667 per BTC, because early purchases acquired significantly more Bitcoin before prices rose.
- For investors who started later, near the May 2021 market peak before the 2022 crash, a $100 per month DCA plan still returned +84.34% in the May 2021–May 2026 scenario, turning $6,100 invested across 61 monthly purchases into approximately $11,244. Over the same period, a lump-sum investment of the full amount made upfront in May 2021 returned approximately +43%. In this specific scenario, DCA outperformed because the strategy automatically accumulated more Bitcoin during the 2022 bear market.
- Importantly, lump-sum investing beat DCA at the one-, two-, three- and four-year horizons in Coinbird’s tested scenarios. The five-year DCA advantage emerged only after a full crash-and-recovery cycle. The conclusion that ‘DCA beats lump-sum’ is not universal it depends heavily on start date and market regime.
- DCA investors across the full period still experienced a maximum drawdown of -76.72% during the 2022 bear market, underscoring that recurring purchases do not eliminate volatility or the psychological difficulty of holding through severe declines.
Philipp During, founder of Coinbird, said,
“The interesting finding is not simply that Bitcoin went up since 2015.
“The interesting finding is that, in this historical scenario, automatic monthly buying through crashes, all-time highs and regulatory uncertainty still produced extraordinary long-term results.
“At the same time, the drawdowns show why this strategy is much harder to live through than it looks on a chart in hindsight.”
Coinbird’s Bitcoin DCA Calculator is available free of charge and allows users to test different investment amounts, purchase intervals and start dates going back to 2013.
Methodology
The analysis simulates recurring Bitcoin purchases at the selected monthly interval using historical CoinGecko price data.
Lump-sum comparisons assume the full planned contribution amount is invested upfront at the start of the selected period.
Calculations exclude taxes and trading fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
About Coinbird
Coinbird is an independent crypto comparison and market intelligence platform helping retail investors compare cryptocurrencies, exchanges and wallets with clearer data.
On coinbird.com, users can explore live market data, compare providers, use crypto calculators and follow market indicators such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season Index.
Coinbird is operated by Coinbird GmbH and is the international platform of kryptovergleich.de, one of Germany’s leading crypto comparison portals, serving more than two million users annually.
Across both platforms, Coinbird combines transparent data, practical tools and educational guides for new and experienced crypto investors alike.
Contact
Philipp Duringer, founder of Coinbird GmbH
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