By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin moved higher amid the U.S. government shutdown and its up roughly 3% in the last 24 hours to $116,400. The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 index (CD20) rose 3.5%.
Equities markets excluding the U.S. also moved higher, even as traders remain cautious over the shutdown. Europe’s STOXX 50 is up 0.3% in today’s session, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.7%. Futures on the S&P 500 are, however, down 0.55% while on the Nasdaq they’re down 0.64%.
The U.S. government shutdown could lead to economic data delays, which are compounded by looming tariffs on various items. This has seemingly seen investors move away from the country and into alternative stores of value.
That uncertainty has seen the price of gold rise 3.75% in the past week to now hover around $3,890 per ounce. Spot crypto ETFs drew in more than $550 million in net inflows on Sept. 30, with spot bitcoin ETFs representing the lion’s share of that figure.
The flight to alternative assets is occurring against a favorable macroeconomic backdrop.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep cutting interest rates this month, with Polymarket traders weighing an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut. That figure is near 95% in the CME’s Fedwatch tool. Lower interest rates could make risk assets, which include cryptocurrencies, more appetizing for investors.
Institutional involvement has also deepened amid the changing monetary policy. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) overtook Deribit to become the top venue for bitcoin options trading by open interest, now near $38 billion.
“We have seen the convergence of both institutional backing and maturation across the Bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin is more embedded in the foundations of global finance, and institutional interest is at an all-time high,” Dom Harz, co-foudner of Bitcoin DeFi gateway BOB, told CoinDesk.
“Unlike previous years, this Uptober will see more targeted inflows, which could be a breakout moment in accelerating Bitcoin DeFi, as investors will want to do more with their Bitcoin holdings; transforming it from a static store-of-value into a yield-bearing asset class,” he added.
Indeed, bitcoin exposure coupled with yield appears to be becoming a new trend. Just this morning Swiss digital bank Sygnym launched a new BTC Alpha Fund, aiming to generate yield on bitcoin without reducing exposure to the cryptocurrency’s price movements.
While traditional markets are likely to see lower volatility due the upcoming data vacuum from the government shutdown, crypto market see a wave of spot ETF decisions in the near future to look forward to.
The SEC is scheduled to make decisions on a total of 16 spot crypto ETF applications this month. Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s week-ahead note.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Oct. 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. Sept. ADP Employment Change Est. 50K.
- Oct. 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 47.7).
- Oct. 1, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 48.3).
- Oct. 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. September Manufacturing PMI (final). Est. 52.
- Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Sept. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.
- Oct. 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets”
- Oct. 1, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Sept. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 50.2).
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s week-ahead note.
- Governance votes & calls
- GnosisDAO is voting on a resubmitted proposal to create a $40,000 pilot fund. This would allow the community to directly finance small ecosystem projects using a conviction voting pool. Voting ends Oct. 1.
- Unlocks
- Oct. 1: to unlock 1.23% of its circulating supply worth $137.27 million.
- Oct. 1: EigenLayer (EIGEN) to unlock 13.77% of its circulating supply worth $64.07 million.
- Token Launches
- Oct. 1: Swam Network (SWM) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, BitMart and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s week-ahead note.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- Privacy token is leading the pack on Wednesday, rising to its highest point since May 2022 following a break out against its bitcoin and dollar trading pairs.
- ZEC touched $97.25 before retreating back to around $92.00 – a 41% rise for the day on the back of a 36% rise in daily trading volume to $300 million.
- The surge comes alongside a boost across the wider altcoin market, with DeFi tokens , curve (CRV) and all increasing by more than 8%.
- A number of catalysts triggered the crypto recovery; notably the U.S. government shutdown that brought the dollar lower and gold to fresh record highs at $3,887.
- Altcoins have outperformed bitcoin so far on Wednesday, although it’s worth noting that the average crypto relative strength index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, suggesting that a period of consolidation is on the cards as the market begins to cool.
- One market outlier was aster, the native token of its namesake’s BNB Chain-based perpetual exchange. ASTER slumped by 6.8% on Wednesday to compound a 25% decline over the past week as hype in the HyperLiquid rival begins to fade.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC futures market continues to show a strengthening bullish bias. The overall futures open interest remains high at around $31.69 billion, reflecting sustained trader engagement, with Binance still leading the pack at $13.19 billion. Concurrently, the 3-month annualized basis is holding firm between 6% and 7%, indicating that the yield from the basis trade remains robust. This consistent metric across both open interest and basis suggests that traders are not only increasing their exposure but are doing so with conviction, reinforcing the positive sentiment observed in the market.
- The BTC options market continues to show a divergence between its key metrics, presenting a complex picture of market sentiment. While the 25 Delta Skew for short-term options remains low, suggesting that traders are still willing to pay a premium for puts to hedge against downside risk, the 24-hour Put/Call Volume points to a surge in bullish speculation. The latest data shows that calls now make up 63.54% of the total volume, a strong reversal from a put-dominated market. This conflicting data indicates a highly polarized environment where some traders are hedging against potential price drops, while a larger number are actively betting on a short-term rally.
- Funding rates have not only remained positive on major exchanges like Binance and OKX, but have picked up across the board, including on the historically volatile Hyperliquid. Deribit, in particular, is seeing a significant premium, with its annualized funding rate jumping to 17%. This indicates a strong and sustained demand for leveraged long positions, as traders are consistently willing to pay a high premium to hold their bullish bets. The widespread positive funding across all major platforms signals a collective market conviction in a continued upward trend for BTC.
- Coinglass data shows $644 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 38-62 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($166 million), ETH ($164 million) and Others ($69 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,650 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 1.54% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $116,430.81 (24hrs: +3.02%)
- ETH is up 2.8% at $4,313.90 (24hrs: +3.25%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 2.61% at 4,140.33 (24hrs: +4%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.87%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0066% (7.1974% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.74
- Gold futures are up 1.18% at $3,919.00
- Silver futures are up 1.73% at $47.44
- Nikkei 225 closed down 0.85% at 44,550.85
- Hang Seng closed up 0.87% at 26,855.56
- FTSE is up 0.66% at 9,412.09
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.31% at 5,546.86
- DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.18% at 46,397.89
- S&P 500 closed up 0.41% at 6,688.46
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.30% at 22,660.01
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.17% at 30,022.81
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.21% at 2,951.50
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.2 bps at 4.152%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.54% at 6,702.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.62% at 24,748.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.47% at 46,471.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.88% (-0.28%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03690 (1.51%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,058 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $51.68
- Total Fees: 3.15 BTC / $359,057
- CME Futures Open Interest: 134,400 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30.1 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.49%
Technical Analysis
- PUMP has been one of the strongest assets off the lows earlier this week, bouncing from the golden pocket at $0.0048 after the drawdown from all-time highs. After finding acceptance above the yearly open, which coincides with the 20D EMA, PUMP has now traded back to the first highs at $0.0069.
- If momentum continues, PUMP can target the daily order block around $0.0074, which, if cleared, could lead to new all-time highs. Bulls will want to see PUMP continue trading above the yearly open in the event of a drawdown.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $337.49 (+1.05%), +1.83% at $343.68 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $132.58 (-0.81%), +1.54% at $134.62
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $33.81 (-1.4%), +2.37% at $34.61
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $63.61 (+2.1%), +0.46% at $63.90
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.26 (-2.14%), +2.14% at $18.65
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.03 (-3.79%), +1.37% at $19.29
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.94 (+3.52%), +0.33% at $18
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.5 (-2.49%), +2.41% at $14.85
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $44.24 (+0.07%), +1.6% at $44.95
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.78 (-4.04%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $322.21 (-1.29%), +2.66% at $330.78
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30 (+2.6%), +2.03% at $30.61
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.01 (-1.45%), +2.59% at $17.45
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.77 (+2.67%), +6.93% at $6.17
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.42 (-4.72%), +6.61% at $2.58
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $429.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.72 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.32 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $127.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.81 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.58 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
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