In brief
- Predictors on Myriad are bearish on Bitcoin, leaning towards a dump to $55,000 before the top asset pumps.
- Bids are rolling in for a massive Pokémon card auction, which predictors think will sell for less than $9 million.
- Italy leads all nations in medals won thus far at the Winter Olympics, and predictors like the host country’s chances of maintaining its lead over Japan.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has reached its lowest mark in years as markets continue their prolonged stay in the “Extreme Fear” realm.
That fear, which coincides with ranging Bitcoin prices near $65,000 as of Thursday, has not made predictors on Myriad any more bullish this week. Instead, predictors think the next move for the top crypto asset is likely a “dump” to $55,000.
Below, we’ll look at some of this week’s top markets on the prediction market platform, including those centered on the next stops for Bitcoin, a major Pokémon card sale, and a Winter Olympics duel between Japan and Italy.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)
Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $84K or dump to $55K?
Market Open: February 5
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $12K
Link: See the latest odds on the “BTC’s Next Move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K?” market on Myriad
Despite rebounding from lows around $60,000, predictors on Myriad are bearish on the top crypto asset’s next stop.
BTC was recently changing hands below $66,000—down over 2.5% in the last 24 hours but nearly even on the week. However, Bitcoin has plunged 29% over the last month.
That’s led to a flip in the odds for Bitcoin’s next stop over the last few days as predictors now favor the dump to $55,000 at 62%, about a 14% swing in the odds since February 7.
It’s not just the wisdom of the crowds that is saying lower first. A new report from Standard Chartered says that BTC will find its way to $50,000 before it makes a rebound. That matches Galaxy Digital analysis from last week, which suggests Bitcoin will continue to fall towards its 200-week moving average of $58,000 given its structural weakness and lack of near-term catalysts.
One of those potential catalysts, a Fed rate cut, became increasingly unlikely on Wednesday following a better-than-expected jobs report.
What’s Next? Odds of a 25bps rate cut in March have fallen to under 8% on FedWatch and just 6% on Polymarket.
Will Logan Paul’s Illustrator Pokémon card sell above $9 million?
Market Open: December 30
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $39K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Will Logan Paul’s Pokémon Card Sell for More Than $9M?” market on Myriad
Famed YouTuber and pro wrestler Logan Paul set a record when he purchased a pristine Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card for nearly $5.3 million in 2021.
Now he’s selling it at auction, and predictors on Myriad are asked whether or not Paul can fetch more than $9 million for the card.
Last month, predictors on Myriad overwhelmingly favored a sale above $9 million, with odds extending as high as 84%. But as bids roll in and the auction conclusion draws closer, predictors have flipped the other way, favoring a sale below $9 million at 58% as of Thursday afternoon.
The card, which is the only Pikachu Illustrator to receive a 10 grade, the highest possible mark from Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA), currently maintains a bid of $5.1 million with just over 3 days remaining in the auction.
Interestingly, Myriad predictors stand at odds with other major prediction markets related to the card. For example, on Kalshi, predictors make it around 53% likely that the card will sell for $9 million, and 41% for it to sell for $10 million.
Regardless of outcome, the winner will walk away with the card and a special diamond necklace card holder that was featured and worn by Paul at WWE’s WrestleMania 38. Plus, the internet celebrity will hand-deliver the prize, per the auction listing.
What’s Next? The auction concludes on February 15.
Who wins more medals at the Winter Olympics: Italy or Japan?
Market Open: January 16
Market Close: February 19
Volume: $10.8K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Who wins more medals at the Winter Olympics?” market on Myriad
The Super Bowl has passed, but sporting enthusiasts still have at least one more week to enjoy the Winter Olympics in Italy.
Those watching can also predict which country—Italy or Japan—will end up with more medals at the conclusion of the games.
What started as a relatively close market has shifted dramatically during the last week as more and more medals have been rewarded to athletes. At this time last week, odds favored Italy, the host nation, around 63% to come away with more medals than Japan.
Since that time though, odds have jumped to 92%, a gain of 29%, that Italy will walk away with more medals. The jump corresponds with a strong start for Italian athletes, who have racked up 16 total medals in the first week—the most medals among any nation at the event thus far.
That number even tops Norway (which trails by two medals), the favorite to earn the most medals at this year’s winter olympics according to data from Polymarket.
Japan, on the other hand, sits seven medals behind Italy as of Thursday morning—and with 76 fewer overall athletes competing than Italy, it has fewer chances for medals moving forward.
Nevertheless, predictors give the nation around an 8% chance of notching more total medals than Italy.
What’s Next? Both countries have multiple athletes competing in advanced rounds of sports like speed skating and snowboarding on Thursday.
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