Hyperliquid’s Fundamentals Outweigh Aster’s Market Share Surge

A new thesis from DeFi analyst Patrick Scott argues that despite losing market share to rivals, Hyperliquid remains the most investable decentralized exchange for perpetual futures.

Perp DEX market in flux

Perpetual futures — or perps — are crypto derivatives that allow traders to speculate on prices without an expiry date. The decentralized platforms that host them, known as perp DEXes, have surged in popularity as traders move activity away from centralized exchanges (CEXes) such as Binance.

Scott noted that perp DEXes have expanded from less than 2% of CEX perpetual trading volume in 2022 to more than 20% last month. Hyperliquid, which issues the HYPE token, has been a key driver of that growth.

Still, recent shifts have raised questions. Hyperliquid’s share of perp DEX volume fell from 45% to just 8% in recent weeks, while Binance-affiliated rival Aster ballooned to more than $270 billion in weekly trades. Other upstarts such as Lighter and edgeX also posted triple-digit percentage gains in activity.

Why Hyperliquid still stands out

Scott argued that Hyperliquid’s fundamentals set it apart. The exchange continues to generate strong revenue, trading at what he described as a reasonable multiple compared to peers, with user stickiness reflected in open interest.

“Unlike volume and revenue, which measure activity, open interest measures liquidity. It’s much stickier,” he wrote, noting Hyperliquid still commands about 62% of the perp DEX open interest market.

Beyond trading, Scott highlighted expansion plans including the HyperEVM network, already hosting over 100 protocols and $2 billion in total value locked and USDH, a stablecoin backed by reserves held with BlackRock and Superstate.

Another initiative, HIP-3, would allow builders to launch new perps markets by staking large amounts of HYPE, creating what Scott described as a “supply sink” for the token.

Scott cautioned that his thesis would be invalidated if Hyperliquid’s open interest or revenue dropped materially, or if USDH failed to gain liquidity over the next year. But for now, he maintains Hyperliquid is better positioned than competitors running heavy incentive programs.