In brief
- The crypto market saw over $750 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, $579 million of which came from long positions.
- Open interest has been range-bound since January 8, signaling low participation.
- The chances of a Bitcoin run to $100,000 on prediction market Myriad have fallen 21% over the past week.
Bitcoin’s outlook deteriorated over the weekend, with Monday volatility triggering a $750 million crypto liquidation spike.
A closer look at the data shows that over 77% of the liquidations came from long positions, according to CoinGlass data, a trend that has been dominant over the past week due to top crypto’s sustained slide lower.
Bitcoin’s drop from last week’s local top of $95,400 saw it drop to lows of $86,126 over the weekend, per CoinGecko data, before selling pressure pushed it to its current price of around as $87,700, down 1% on the day.
Derivatives participation has remained thin, with aggregate open interest—the total number of open positions—bracketed between 245,000 and 267,000 BTC since January 8, according to Velo data.
Over the past week, however, the cumulative spot and perpetual volume delta indicators have been trending lower, suggesting a sustained selling pressure from both avenues.
“Bitcoin’s weakness is driven by a clear absence of interest from large players at current levels,” Georgii Verbitskii, founder of non-custodial Web3 platform TYMIO, previously told Decrypt.
What’s driving Bitcoin’s decline?
The unfolding financial crisis in Japan has emerged as a key catalyst.
A bond selloff that began last week has accelerated into a steep decline in the yen, which has been in freefall since April 2024. The downtrend intensified in the first two weeks of January, though rumors of intervention from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have temporarily stalled the yen’s slide.
The fragile macro backdrop is weighing on risk assets, with Bitcoin’s price action reflecting its growing sensitivity to traditional financial turbulence.
Users on Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, now assign a 33% chance that Bitcoin’s next major move will be toward $69,000 rather than $100,000—up from 14% on January 17.
Meanwhile, traditional safe havens are attracting capital: gold is up 2.08%, and silver has risen 1.6% on the day, underscoring the defensive rotation currently sidelining Bitcoin.
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