The Bitcoin price has already crashed by more than 32.5% from last year’s all-time high above $126,000, toward the $85,000 region. Although the cryptocurrency has recovered slightly and is now trading above $90,000, a crypto analyst has forecast another major price crash in 2026. According to the forecast, Bitcoin could decline by 50%, following trends observed in previous cycles, potentially hitting a bottom near $40,000.
Bitcoin Price Set For 50% Crash
Bitcoin could face another price correction as technical indicators continue to signal a strong bear market. Market expert CryptoBullet warns that Bitcoin’s bear market behavior is not over, with a deeper pullback aligning with long-term on-chain trends.
CryptoBullet bases his outlook on Bitcoin’s Realized Price, a metric that reflects the average price at which all circulating coins last moved. He explained that this level acts as a key reference during bear markets and has historically marked zones where price eventually breaks down before forming a bottom.
Looking at past cycles, he noted that Bitcoin has consistently fallen below its Realized Price during bear markets. The drawdowns reached 66% in 2011, 48% in 2015, 35% in 2018, and 33% in 2022, indicating a consistent tendency for prices to fall below this level. Due to this repeated decline, the analyst believes the next bear-market crash will follow the same pattern, triggering a 50% drop to $40,000 for Bitcoin this year.
Another major factor supporting CryptoBullet’s analysis is Bitcoin’s declining volatility over time. He noted that the gap between market price and Realized Price has steadily narrowed, shrinking from a 66% deviation in 2011 to roughly 33% in 2022.
Because of this trend, the analyst does not expect the bear market this year to be as severe as the downside observed in past cycles. Instead, he estimates Bitcoin could fall by 24% to 31% below Realized Price, placing its likely bottom in the $40,000 to $43,000 range.
Extreme Bear Market Scenario
With the Realized Price currently near $56,000, CryptoBullet has also cautioned that Bitcoin could decline even further to below $40,000 this year. The analyst noted that if the market repeats the 2022 bear market, a 33% drop below Realized Price would place Bitcoin near $37,400.
He added that by the third quarter or fourth quarter of 2026, Realized Price could fall deeper to $53,000 or $54,000, which could result in a similar 33% crash, pushing Bitcoin closer to $35,000. The analyst has stated that $35,000 represents the most extreme downside he can reasonably see this year based on historical behavior. The accompanying chart also reflects this view by highlighting previous bear-market crashes that occurred after the price slipped well below the Realized Price line.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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