At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the U.S. labor market handed traders a breaking story with two timelines, one for today, one for last year.
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 130,000 in January, unemployment held at 4.3%, and wages kept climbing.
The details came straight from the BLS, the monthly snapshot that tells markets how hiring and paychecks are moving.
Then I scrolled, and the past shifted.
The same release carried a huge annual benchmark revision that rewrote the job count for March 2025 lower by 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, and pushed the entire 2025 trendline down.
Those revisions matter because traders build expectations from the shape of the curve, and the curve just changed.
That is where Bitcoin enters the room.
Crypto traders should follow the jobs report because it can move the Federal Reserve’s timeline in a single morning. Rates shape the price of risk across the world, and Bitcoin sits right in the path of that pressure, especially on days when the market is repricing the cost of money.
Today, the first reaction came through bonds. Right after the release, Treasury yields climbed, with the 10 year moving up to around 4.20% from about 4.15%, a classic signal of markets leaning toward tighter conditions.
CME FedWatch odds of a March cut dropped to about 6% from roughly 22% before the data hit.
Bitcoin followed that pulse, down around 3% on the day, trading near $66,900, as traders absorbed the shift toward later cuts.
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The heart of this story lives in the tension between the morning’s headline and the year that got revised.
January hiring looks steady, wages look firm, and the official unemployment rate sits at 4.3%. The benchmark process also says the economy carried fewer jobs through 2025 than the first draft suggested, and that gap forces traders to hold two pictures in their head at once.
Why one jobs report can swing Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s macro wiring has become clearer over time, and today’s release shows it in plain English.
Stronger hiring data can lift yields, higher yields raise the bar for risk, and Bitcoin often feels that weight first. The market has been flirting with record highs, while yields have climbed, driven by a mix of growth confidence and rate caution.
Wages are a key piece of the caution. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in January to $37.17, and they are up 3.7% over the past year, figures that keep the conversation about sticky inflation alive.
When wage growth runs firm, markets tend to price a Fed that stays patient, and a patient Fed often means tighter financial conditions for longer.
At the same time, the benchmark revisions invite a second storyline, one that points toward a softer backdrop under the surface.
The BLS revised the March 2025 level down by 898,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, and it revised 2025’s net job growth sharply lower, which changes how investors interpret the past year of “resilience.”
That is why rate cut odds matter so much to Bitcoin traders, and why it’s wise to watch the futures market like a second scoreboard. Those odds moved rapidly after the release, and that speed itself becomes part of the risk, because it pulls liquidity expectations forward and back within hours.
Three paths from here, and what each means for BTC
Markets move on the story that the next few data points confirm, and today set up three plausible paths.
- One path looks like higher for longer, jobs keep printing steady enough, wage growth stays firm, and inflation cools slowly. In that world, cuts get pushed out, yields stay elevated, and Bitcoin’s rallies can struggle to hold, because the cost of money keeps pressing on risk.
- A second path grows out of the revisions, the downshift in 2025 becomes the first clue to a broader slowdown that shows up in future hiring, hours, and spending. In that world, cuts come back into the frame faster, and Bitcoin can find support as markets price easier conditions.
- A third path sits between them, a soft landing with gradual cooling and eventual cuts, and a choppy road in between. That world can still be constructive for Bitcoin, and it can feel noisy because every major print becomes a debate over timing.
Two near-term calendar beats matter most for that debate.
The next inflation report lands Friday, and the next employment report is scheduled for March 6.
Barron’s flagged CPI as the next catalyst traders were circling, which makes sense given how quickly rate cut odds moved today.
For now, the impact reads like this, a jobs beat pushed yields up, cut odds slipped, and Bitcoin traded lower in that first wave of repricing.
The deeper takeaway lives in the benchmark revisions, because they change the story people tell about where the economy has been, and that story shapes where they think policy heads next.