Bitcoin price traded below $104,000 today after briefly reclaiming $106,000 to start the week, as traders weighed a mix of macro tailwinds and technical headwinds — including President Donald Trump’s plan to send Americans $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks.
The policy, announced Sunday on Truth Social, would pay most Americans a cash rebate funded by record tariff revenues.
The president said the program would return “trillions of dollars” collected from trade tariffs and eventually help pay down the nation’s $37 trillion debt. Markets, however, are viewing it as a fresh liquidity injection — a kind of 2025 reboot of the 2020-era stimulus that helped ignite Bitcoin’s last bull run.
Crypto traders immediately began drawing parallels. “Rate cuts, record highs, AI, and stimulus checks — buckle up,” analysts at The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X, while several Bitcoin commentators joked that the “free Bitcoin” era had returned.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is at $103, 459.
In the meantime, Senate Democrats joined Republicans to approve a funding measure to reopen the federal government, despite not securing an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, with the 60-40 vote now headed to the House for likely passage.
The deal, expected to be signed by President Trump, would end a 41-day shutdown, restoring federal services and pay for workers, but has sparked intra-party debate among Democrats.
Bitcoin price technical structure
The timing comes as Bitcoin price’s technical structure remains finely balanced between recovery and resistance. The $99,000 level, reinforced by the 55-week exponential moving average, continues to serve as a strong support floor.
To the upside, Fibonacci resistance remains at $109,400, with a more substantial barrier near $111,000. A break above $116,000 could open the door to a renewed move toward $129,000 — the top of Bitcoin price’s broadening wedge pattern.
Institutional interest remains firm. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, disclosed a $49.9 million purchase of 487 BTC last week, bringing its total stash to more than 641,000 coins worth roughly $47.5 billion.
Macro conditions are also lending support. Hopes of an end to the U.S. government shutdown have buoyed risk assets, with Nasdaq strength spilling into crypto markets.
Yet renewed dysfunction in Washington could weigh on sentiment and push Bitcoin back toward lower supports at $96,000 or even $93,000 if volatility returns.
Beneath the price action, structural factors in derivatives and ETF flows continue to shape Bitcoin price’s trajectory. A widening futures premium typically draws coins off exchanges and tightens supply, while compressed basis and negative funding can unwind positions and pressure spot prices.
For now, the basis hovers near 5–5.5% — enough to keep carry trades alive but sensitive to changes in collateral conditions or ETF outflows. After nearly $1 billion exited Bitcoin ETFs in early November, traders are watching for another shift in direction that could flip hedging flows and influence spot liquidity.
Despite short-term uncertainty, structural signals remain bullish. Rising production costs and a growing base of long-term holders suggest that the next bear market may be shallower than previous cycles.
With just 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply left to mine before the 2028 halving, scarcity is tightening at a time when macro liquidity may once again be expanding.
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