Bitcoin faces short-term uncertainty due to a CME gap, but historical data hints at a potential “Uptober” rally.
Bitcoin has seen a strong bounce back in recent days, reclaiming the $111,000 level. However, as Bitcoin futures opened for the week starting September 29, experts are cautioning about the short-term uncertainty brought on by a CME gap.
Historically, these gaps tend to close quickly, and this could trigger a pullback in the coming days. With an “Uptober” rally anticipated, analysts believe the Bitcoin market is at a critical point.
CME Gap Sparks Concerns Among Traders
Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) opened with a gap, which is notable since it hasn’t occurred in weeks.
CME gaps are often followed by a quick price adjustment, leaving traders on edge. If the gap closes soon, BTC short-term market structure could weaken, potentially leading to a pullback.
$BTC Has opened up with a CME gap and has continued higher since the futures open.
It has been quite a while since we did open with a gap. like this. These used to close quite quickly. If that were to happen here then the entire structure would look pretty bad in the short term.… pic.twitter.com/z4yoSOFUaO
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) September 29, 2025
While some analysts predict the gap may close quickly, others suggest it could remain open for a longer period, as has happened rarely in the past. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that the downside risk increases if Bitcoin drops below the $111,000 level.
At present, Bitcoin is trading at $111,900, up by 2.25%. The increased trading volume, which surged by 50%, signals that market participants are staying active.
The Rising Open Interest and Liquidations in Bitcoin Futures
The Bitcoin futures market has seen a sharp rise in open interest, reaching $78.5 billion, with 24-hour liquidations soaring to $47 million. This increase indicates significant market activity and heightened trader interest in Bitcoin.
Over the past week, the crypto market has experienced major leverage flush-outs, contributing to substantial liquidations on multiple occasions.
Despite the recent volatility and increased liquidations, Bitcoin has managed to maintain a 3% gain for the month. The market’s strong volatility could play a pivotal role in shaping the near-term direction for Bitcoin, as these factors could drive future price movements in either direction.
October’s Historical Trends Point to Potential Uptober Rally
Historically, Bitcoin has seen strong monthly gains in October, with an average increase of 10% to 30%. Analysts are referencing these historical trends as they speculate on an “Uptober” rally for Bitcoin.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin has already secured a weekly close above its bull market support band. This setup mirrors the pattern seen in September 2020, which preceded a strong rally in October.
Nice weekly close by #BTC to close above the bull market support band.
Kind of similar to 2020, where in September, we had 2 weeks up and then 2 weeks down. pic.twitter.com/1MzIS9VaCk
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 29, 2025
However, BTC has faced resistance near the $112,000 level recently. If it fails to break above this level, it may lead to a drop toward $105,000. Market veterans like Mike Novogratz believe Bitcoin could reach $200,000 in the current bull run.
Regardless of the short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin’s performance this month is contributing to the optimism around October’s potential gains.
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