Bitcoin Price extended its losses today, sliding more than 2.5% to around $102,852 as renewed U.S. dollar strength and investor outflows from crypto ETFs weighed heavily on the market.
The bitcoin price drop comes after Bitcoin’s worst October performance in nearly a decade, further denting sentiment among traders already reeling from a historic liquidation event last month.
Bitcoin briefly traded below $103,567, its lowest level in over two weeks, breaking below the critical 200-day moving average — a key gauge of long-term market momentum, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded to above $104,000 at time of writing.
According to market analyst Damian Chmiel, a sustained break below $100,000 could trigger a sharper sell-off toward the April lows near $74,000, implying a potential 30% downside from current levels.
According to updated Polymarket data, there’s now an 80% chance of the Bitcoin price falling below $100,000 before 2026
Fed policy shift and macro headwinds
The broader macro backdrop remains unfavorable for risk assets. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments last week walked back expectations of a December rate cut, reinforcing the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative.
That shift has boosted the U.S. dollar while simultaneously pressuring non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.
Adding to the selling pressure, ETF investors have withdrawn more than $1.8 billion from Bitcoin and Ether products over the past four trading days, data shows, while open interest in BTC perpetual futures has fallen about 30% from its October peak, signaling a pullback in leveraged exposure.
Bitcoin price technical breakdown
Bitcoin’s $106,900 support level — aligned with the 0.146 Fibonacci retracement — was repeatedly tested last week but ultimately failed to inspire follow-through buying.
Analysts now view $104,000 as the next line of defense, though this level has already been tested twice and is increasingly fragile.
If $104,000 breaks decisively, traders are eyeing $96,000 as the next significant support zone. On the upside, bulls must reclaim the 21-day EMA and Point of Control around $111,000 to reestablish momentum, followed by resistance at $114,600 and $122,000, per Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Bearish bias persists
The overall market mood remains bearish as traders continue to deleverage and avoid aggressive long positions.
“The crypto market is facing multiple near-term headwinds,” said Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, according to Bloomberg. “It’s already fragile from October’s massive liquidation event and a string of protocol exploits.”
With Bitcoin’s technicals under pressure and macro catalysts lacking, traders are looking ahead to the November 13 Consumer Price Index report for a potential shift in sentiment.
Cooler inflation data could reopen the door for Fed easing — a development bulls desperately need to reverse the trend. For now, however, Bitcoin remains on the defensive, with sellers firmly in control and a close below $100,000 threatening to accelerate the slide.
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