Bitcoin is showing renewed fragility as price struggles to reclaim the $110,000 level, putting bulls on the defensive and exposing the market to further downside risk. Selling pressure has been building across the market, and BTC now finds itself probing lower demand zones as traders reassess positioning after recent volatility. While the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive, near-term sentiment has shifted toward caution as liquidity thins and speculative flows recede.
A key dynamic shaping this cycle is the absence of retail participation. According to top analyst Darkfost, retail investor activity — measured through small holder inflows to Binance — has fallen sharply. Since early 2023, just after the bear market ended, the 90-day moving average of shrimp inflows has dropped from roughly 552 BTC per day to just 92 BTC today. This more than five-fold decline marks one of the steepest drops in retail engagement ever seen in a Bitcoin recovery phase.
This structural shift underscores how different this cycle is from previous ones. With retail sitting on the sidelines, Bitcoin is being driven primarily by institutional flows, large holders, and long-term accumulation behavior. For bulls, the path forward likely hinges on whether new liquidity arrives — or whether current selling pressure pushes BTC into deeper support before the next leg higher can begin.
Spot ETFs Reshape Market Participation as Retail Fades
The decline in retail participation accelerated sharply with the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Before ETFs went live, small holders were sending roughly 450 BTC per day to Binance. Since the ETF debut, that figure has collapsed to just 92 BTC per day, and the downtrend has continued. This shift marks a structural change in how retail interacts with Bitcoin and where liquidity enters the market.
Darkfost outlines three primary drivers behind this dramatic decline. First, a portion of the retail crowd migrated to ETFs, opting for the convenience and perceived security of regulated financial products over self-custody and traditional exchange activity. This naturally reduced on-chain inflows to Binance and similar platforms. Second, remaining retail investors have shifted behavior, choosing to hold long-term rather than trade, indicating stronger hands and a more disciplined class of small holders. Third, many early retail accumulators have simply graduated out of the shrimp cohort, now holding more than 0.1 BTC and no longer being counted in that data segment.
These dynamics reveal a profound evolution in Bitcoin’s market structure. The current cycle is being driven not by speculative retail surges but by institutional flows, emerging whales, corporate treasury strategies, and long-term accumulation addresses that rarely sell. As a result, Bitcoin’s supply is tightening at the margins even as price consolidates — creating a slow-burning but powerful supply-demand setup unlike previous cycles. The forces supporting Bitcoin today are more structurally resilient, but they also produce a market rhythm that is quieter, more methodical, and less euphoric than traditional retail-led bull runs.
Bitcoin Remains Trapped Below Key Moving Averages
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $107,250, holding above a key support zone after another rejection from resistance. The daily chart shows BTC struggling to regain momentum, with multiple attempts to reclaim the $110K–$112K band failing as sellers consistently step in around short-term resistance and moving average clusters. This area, highlighted on the chart, represents a critical liquidity and acceptance zone — until price breaks above it decisively, upside momentum will remain capped.
BTC is currently trading below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a bearish short-term structure that points to continued market hesitation. The 200-day moving average sits slightly below current price and is acting as an important dynamic support. Losing that zone would open the door to a potential retest of the $104K–$105K region, where strong demand previously emerged during October’s flush.
On the upside, a clean break above $112K, followed by a reclaim of the $117,500 Point of Control, is required to reset bullish momentum and put the next leg higher back in play. For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound and cautious, with sellers defending overhead levels and buyers stepping in only at key supports. Volatility remains suppressed as the market waits for fresh catalysts and liquidity inflows.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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