Morning Minute: Bitcoin Hit $75k After Weekend Washout

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors dumped over the weekend, down 10-20% on week; BTC at $78k
• Saylor’s MSTR briefly goes underwater as BTC tapped $75k
• Tom Lee’s BMNR down $6.9B on ETH position
• Hyperliquid reportedly testing native prediction markets
• Polymarket coming to Solana via Jupiter integration

? The Weekend Bloodbath: Bitcoin Hits 9-Month Low as $2.5B Gets Liquidated

The bull hopium may have just run out.

? What Happened

Bitcoin dropped more than 7% over the weekend, sliding from around $84,000 to briefly touching $75,500 (now back over $78,000).

The move pushed BTC below its True Market Mean ($80,500) for the first time in 30 months (the last time was late 2023 when Bitcoin traded at just $29,000).

This led to ~$5B in liquidations across the weekend, almost all longs.

Ethereum got hit hardest with $1.15B in ETH positions wiped out as ETH fell as much as 17% at one point.

Solana lost nearly $200M in liquidations and also lost its $100 handle.

So what caused the dump?

• Fed Chair Warsh: Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh sparked fears of prolonged hawkish policy
• Iran explosion: Reports of a blast at Bandar Abbas port (handles ~20% of the world’s seaborne oil) seemed to spook markets on Saturday
• U.S. government shutdown: A brief federal shutdown added to the uncertainty

But overall, it seems like the simplest explanation is that the crypto 4-year cycle is simply playing out again.

?️ What They’re Saying

“Bitcoin topped on apathy and has had a slow bleed.
Silver topped on euphoria and had a sharp correction.

Good to understand market behavior after different types of tops.” – Benjamin Cowen

? Why It Matters

This is the largest liquidation cascade since October 10, when $19B got wiped in a single day.

The difference?

October 10 sparked conspiracy theories about Binance and broken market structure.

This time, the culprit is less clear but may simply boil down to: too many longs, not enough buyers.

The irony?

While prices tumble, the institutions are still building.

Coinbase found that 71% of institutional investors believe BTC is undervalued between $85K-$95K, and 80% said they’d hold or increase exposure after a 10% decline.

So where does this leave us?

My gut read is it gets worse before it gets better. I was a staunch “4 year cycle” denier, but the evidence is piling up on the other side. Bitcoin and majors look like they’re in a bear market trend.

We will likely know more by the end of this week…

? Macro Crypto and Memes

• Crypto majors fell over the weekend, down 10-20% on the week; BTC -10% at $78,200; ETH -20% at $2,310; BNB -12% at $767; SOL -15% at $103
• RIVER (+32%), Stable (+19%) and MYX (+16%) led daily top movers
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 16, the lowest reading of 2026
• ETH recorded its most oversold daily RSI since August 2024
• World Liberty Fi signed a $500M deal with an Abu Dhabi fund just days before the inauguration according to new report from WSJ
• Trump’s Fed Chair pick Kevin Warsh has a mixed crypto record including backing CBDCs
• Visa and Mastercard execs aren’t buying the stablecoin hype, citing limited consumer demand in developed markets
• Ripple launched Ripple Treasury for enterprises to manage fiat and digital assets together using RLUSD stablecoin

Corporate Treasuries:

• Strategy’s (MSTR) 712,647 BTC went underwater as BTC briefly fell below its $76,037 average cost over the weekend
• Tom Lee’s BMNR is now down ~$6.9B on its ETH position

Meme Movers:

• Meme sector got hit hard along with majors, with most leaders down 13-20% on the week
• Moltbook was the runner of the weekend, soaring to $100M on Base before falling back to $40M
• BNKR jumped 20% to $60M as it powered more agentic launchpads
• Buttcoin jumped 70% to $20M leading action on Solana; CopperInu (+40%), Purch (+360%) and Wojak (+43%) were other notable movers

? Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• Hyperliquid is reportedly testing native prediction markets
• Rainbow’s token auction begins today and runs through Feb 5
• Story Protocol proposed changes to its tokenomics to delay unlocks
• Jupiter announced a $35M investment in its JUP token from Parafi Capital (JUP +10%)
• Infinex’s INX fell to $27M market cap ($133M fdv) after its first weekend of trading
• Polymarket is coming to Solana via a Jupiter integration

? What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were green despite ETH falling; Punks +2% at 27.3 ETH, Pudgy +2% at 4.16 ETH, BAYC +1% at 5.15 ETH; Hypurr’s +4% at 515 HYPE
• Moonbirds (+7%), Kodas (+10%) and Project Aeon (+9%) were notable movers