In brief
- ARK Invest forecasts Bitcoin could account for roughly 70% of a projected $28 trillion digital-asset market by 2030, driven by ETF adoption and corporate treasuries.
- DeFi value shifts from networks to applications, as fee-generating protocols scale faster and begin to rival fintech platforms in revenue efficiency and assets under management.
- Tokenized markets move toward the mainstream, with ARK projecting up to $11 trillion in tokenized real-world assets by 2030.
Bitcoin, decentralized finance applications, and tokenized real-world assets are poised to dominate crypto development in 2026, with experts saying regulatory clarity will determine whether innovation translates into mainstream adoption.
ARK Invest’s latest research report, dubbed “Big Ideas 2026,” forecasts the digital asset market could balloon to $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin commanding 70% of that market at roughly $16 trillion.
The projections from Cathie Wood’s investment management firm are “reasonable,” Joni Pirovich, founder and CEO of Crystal aOS, told Decrypt.
“Crypto-native financial platforms are scaling, but they’re not seeking to become global centralized institutions—they’re seeking global acceptance and navigating fragmented compliance requirements,” she said.
The report highlights Bitcoin’s maturation as an institutional asset class, with U.S. ETFs and public companies now holding 12% of total supply, up from 8.7% in early 2025.
The projections show how Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenized assets are increasingly treated as functional components of global capital markets.
Sudhakar Lakshmanaraja, founder of blockchain education platform Digital South Trust, told Decrypt that “crypto’s future in 2026 will be decided more by regulation than innovation.”
“Bitcoin may dominate as an asset, but DeFi and tokenized markets cannot scale until governments settle custody, compliance, and investor protection rules,” he added.
Tokenized assets tripled to $19 billion in 2025 and could reach $11 trillion by 2030 (about 1.38% of global financial assets), anchored by BlackRock’s $1.7B BUIDL fund (20% of tokenized Treasuries) and tokenized gold from Tether and Paxos, according to the report.
Decentralized finance applications, meanwhile, generated a record $3.8 billion in revenue in 2025, with January alone accounting for one-fifth of the total, as ultra-lean platforms like Hyperliquid topped $800 million in annual revenue with fewer than 15 employees, and 70 protocols now exceed $1 million in monthly recurring revenue, the report found.
“In 2026, the convergence of mature regulatory frameworks and interoperable institutional networks will allow sovereign digital securities to redefine global capital formation,” Wook Lee, Founder and CEO of EDENA Capital Partners, told Decrypt, stressing the transformation underway.
Tokenized markets will be the “primary driver of real-world economic activity across the digital asset ecosystem,” Lee added.
The report also noted Bitcoin’s declining volatility, with average drawdowns from all-time highs reaching their shallowest levels across all measured time horizons in 2025, and Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns outperforming Ethereum and Solana throughout most of the year.
The world’s largest crypto is trading just below $90,000, up 0.5% in the last 24 hours but down more than 6% on the week, according to CoinGecko data.
The crypto rebounded above the $90,000 level on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he would not impose tariffs on European countries following a meeting with NATO’s secretary general over the fate of Greenland, though prices have since retreated amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
ARK’s report also examined AI infrastructure, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and distributed energy alongside its crypto analysis.
In the prediction market Myriad, users are currently leaning toward crypto, not AI, as the likelier bubble to burst first, with traders assigning a nearly 55% chance.
(Disclaimer: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan)
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