Bitcoin (BTC) began the new trading week on the back foot, slipping below the $90,000 mark as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of a dense slate of U.S. economic data and key global central bank decisions.
After reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October, the world’s top cryptocurrency has struggled to regain momentum, instead entering a period marked by tight ranges, low volatility, and subdued trading volumes.
Market movers appear reluctant to commit to new positions as uncertainty builds around the direction of macroeconomic trends. Bitcoin was trading near $89,600 during early Monday sessions, extending weekend losses and reflecting a broader risk-off mood across global markets.
BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD chart on Tradingview
Bitcoin Volatility Compresses as Technical Levels Tighten
Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has been defined by historically low volatility, with the asset hovering in a narrow band just below $90,000.
Analysts note that such compression often precedes a sharper move. Technical analyst Aksel Kibar has identified a critical setup on the daily chart, suggesting that a decisive breakout or breakdown could be imminent.
On the downside, failure to hold current levels could open the door to a decline toward the $86,000 area, with deeper support seen between $73,700 and $76,500. On the upside, a sustained break above resistance near $94,600 could shift momentum and put the $100,000 level back into focus.
Other traders have echoed calls for patience, advising investors to wait for a confirmed move outside the current range before taking positions.
On-Chain Signals and Liquidity Raise Caution
Beyond chart patterns, on-chain data has reinforced a more cautious outlook. Analysts at CryptoQuant have highlighted weakening demand and selling pressure near key moving averages, suggesting that recent rebounds have lacked conviction.
Declining liquidity following the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut has also weighed on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, according to market makers.
Still, not all signals are uniformly bearish. Data from Glassnode shows that some digital asset treasury firms have quietly resumed Bitcoin accumulation, despite prices struggling to stabilize. This mixed backdrop underscores the market’s current indecision.
Macro Data and Central Banks in Focus
Attention now turns to a busy macroeconomic calendar. Investors are watching delayed U.S. jobs data, inflation reports, retail sales figures, and flash PMI readings for clues on growth and interest rate expectations. Speeches from Federal Reserve officials later in the week could further influence sentiment.
Globally, central bank meetings add another layer of uncertainty. Decisions from the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and especially the Bank of Japan, where a rate hike is widely expected, are being closely monitored for their impact on global liquidity.
With volatility compressed and key catalysts approaching, Bitcoin appears poised at a crossroads as markets await clearer signals on economic and policy direction.
Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
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