The macro calendar is stacked in a way that crypto hasn’t seen in months, with monetary policy, geopolitics and Washington dysfunction converging into a single five-day window that also includes megacap tech earnings and the monthly candle close for Bitcoin on Friday. As The Kobeissi Letter put it, “This week is going to be action packed… All while President Trump meets with China’s President Xi on Thursday, 48 hours before his 100% tariff is set to go ‘live.’ Buckle up for a wild week.”
Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) captured the market mood from the risk-asset side: “I am very excited about this week. We have Big Tech earnings, FOMC, Trump/XI meeting, and a potential end to this annoying government shutdown. If all goes well we can have great earnings with quality guidance, a lower fed funds rate, an end to QT, a solidified trade deal with China, and a reopened government. Sounds good to me. Should be fun to watch.”
Joe Consorti went further on the crypto read-through: “This is the week when the cloud of uncertainty that has loomed over Bitcoin may finally lift… Couple this with investors already moving into risk to juice their returns into year-end, and you’ve got all of the catalysts needed to ideally break BTC out of its 7-month consolidation period.”
This is the week when the cloud of uncertainty that has loomed over Bitcoin may finally lift.
• Trump-Xi trade deal will be reached
• The Fed will likely deliver guidance on the end of QT
• Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft, along with 20% of the S&P 500, will…— Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti) October 26, 2025
4 Things To Watch This Week As Bitcoin Faces A Critical Test
The Federal Reserve sets the tone on Wednesday. The October FOMC meeting runs Tuesday–Wednesday, October 28–29, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference. Markets will parse the statement and any guidance on the cadence and endpoint of balance-sheet runoff aka end of quantitative tightening (QT) given that growth and labor indicators have softened into the autumn.
The second pillar is the US–China trade deal. Into Thursday’s Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea, both sides have signaled a “framework” to avert the administration’s threatened 100% blanket tariff on Chinese imports. US and Chinese officials spent the weekend crafting a tentative understanding that would extend a tariff truce and revive “substantial” agricultural purchases, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emerging as the administration’s public point man.
Comments late Sunday and early Monday described “consensus on major trade issues” after “frank and constructive” talks, and framed the leader-level meeting as the venue to finalize the deal architecture. The market-moving toggle is binary: a signed framework that delays or rescinds the 100% tariff slated for November 1, or a breakdown that lets it activate. In the wake of the news, the price of Bitcoin has already risen by over 4%.
Washington’s third pressure point is the government shutdown, which entered its fourth week and approaches Day 27 as of Monday, October 27. The policy relevance for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is twofold.
First, prolonged shutdowns have historically delayed data releases and constrained regulatory processes that touch crypto markets at the margin. Second, the fiscal optics matter for the rates complex ahead of Wednesday.
Layered on top is Big Tech earnings. Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday after the bell, with Apple and Amazon following on Thursday, meaning that results and guidance from roughly $15 trillion in market capitalization will be hitting the tape within 36 hours of the FOMC. These releases can drive cross-asset volatility via index moves, dollar sensitivity and broader risk sentiment, and they often spill over to Bitcoin and crypto when positioning is tight.
All of this lands just as Bitcoin prints its October monthly close on Friday, October 31. Technically, BTC has been compressing, with multiple analysts noting a rare four-month band of monthly opens and closes inside an ~single-digit percentage envelope and repeated tests of the macro range boundaries.
As Daan Crypto Trades observed, “Bitcoin’s price has opened & closed within a small 8% price range during the past 4 months. A bigger move is coming at some point.” Rekt Capital framed the current bounce as a “strong rebound from the Macro Range Low,” while others pointed to the psychology of a whipsawing October: “this monthly candle has destroyed portfolios, dreams, ambitions, aspirations, and hope—first for bulls, and now for bears… gross,” wrote @crypthoem.
A monthly close above the September close at $114,048 could be a bullish sign after a turbulent October with the most brutal liquidations event in history for the market.
At press time, BTC traded at $115,336.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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